The chances of the UK securing a deal on policing and security before it leaves the EU in March appear to be slipping away following last week’s APCC/NPCC conference.
During a session on Brexit, Lord William Bach, who is one of three Police and Crime Commissioners tasked with examining the effects of Brexit on British Policing, revealed the UK is on course to leave the EU without a deal on policing and security and that a deal will have to be struck in a transition period before December 2020, ‘if at all’.
Lord Bach made his comments following a meeting with Sir Julian King, the EU Commissioner for Security Union in Brussels three weeks ago.
Sir Julian said there is no chance of a deal before 29 March. He made that absolutely crystal clear.
Lord William Bach, APCC Brexit Working Group
Lord Bach said: “Sir Julian said there is no chance of a deal before 29 March. He made that absolutely crystal clear. I can’t tell you how forcefully he made his point.”
“That’s a tall order. There are some very big issues around third-party ability to get into EU policing in a way that we need to, in a way that would be madness if we couldn’t.”
Lord Bach also raised concerns that the European Parliamentary Elections in May 2019 and the subsequent forming of a new EU Commission which could reduce effective negotiating time further from 21 months to 15 months.
“Who knows? But these negotiations are crucial not just to British Policing, but also to EU policing,” Lord Bach said.
His comments contradict Sir Philip Rutnam KCB, Permanent Secretary to the Home Office, who spoke earlier in the session. Sir Philip said the government was ‘confident’ of reaching a deal, but advised senior police leaders to be prepared for the ‘less likely scenario of leaving without a deal’.
He said: “The mutual interest in reaching a deal is overwhelming, but we have to be prepared for all scenarios.”
Comprehensive security partnership
Sir Philip outlined Government’s proposals for a ‘comprehensive security partnership’ with the EU following the UK’s departure. He said the partnership would preserve the mutually-important operational capability of both the UK and the EU.
“That partnership would secure rapid and secure data exchanges like SIS2, practical measures to support cross border cooperation, such as the European Arrest Warrant, and continued cooperation with EU law enforcement and criminal justice agencies.”
This comprehensive partnership would enable our relationship to continue and to grow in response to the threat
Sir Philip Rutnam KCB, Permanent Secretary, Home Office
“This comprehensive partnership would enable our relationship to continue and to grow in response to the threat,” added Sir Philip.
Although the Government expects a deal, Sir Philip conceded the negotiations are only ‘at the beginning’.
“We’re making progress, but there’s a long way to go. It’s difficult to predict where we will end up, but our focus is to make an ambitious partnership.”
Sir Philip also urged senior police leaders to play a more active role in arguing the value of retaining a continued shared partnership and the imperative for UK policing to continue to play a role with their EU counterparts.
“Your voice has real effect,” he added.
In response to concerns from the conference floor regarding the potential impact of Brexit, Sir Philip had little offer in terms of solutions other than to recommend forces ‘do some contingency planning and seek to understand what the effect might be’.
Given the current funding situation in policing, some PCCs minds were fixed firmly on the cost of Brexit. David Jamieson, Police and Crime Commissioner for West Midlands, raised the issue of tariffs on imported goods and the knock-on effect that could have on police procurement such as vehicles
Sir Philip said tariffs were ‘unlikely’.
If we leave the EU instruments, what we will have is in no way shape or form as good as any we currently have.
DAC Richard Martin, NPCC Lead for Brexit
Crashing out of the EU without a deal on policing and security would deliver a serious blow to UK policing. The UK has been a central driver and a heavy user of many of the security and policing mechanisms that are available to EU members.
Contingency plans are well under way, but senior police officers admit that they will not be able to replace current systems the UK uses on a like-for-like for basis. The alternatives will less efficient and less integrated.
MPS Deputy Assistant Commissioner Richard Martin said the challenge for policing was to prepare for Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal, including no transition.
“If we don’t have a transition deal that would mean we would leave 29 March. We would leave Europol and we wouldn’t be able to use any of the instruments, everything from European Arrest Warrants to SIS2.”
“Despite all the contingency plans, if we leave the EU instruments, what we will have is in no way shape or form as good as any we currently have. They will allow us to carry on policing, but they won’t allow us to be as efficient or as integral as we are now.”
Back up plans
The current EU systems used by UK policing are invaluable, but especially the EAW and SIS II. In 2015-16, 2102 people were arrested and removed from the UK at the request of other EU states, while 150 suspects were arrested in the rest of the EU at the UK’s request. Currently, it takes around three months to transfer a suspect within the EU compared to 10 months using other means. SIS2 has around 66 million reports on criminal suspects, missing persons, stolen vehicles and terrorist suspects and is currently accessible by officers on the street.
The NPCC National Lead for International Criminality and Brexit and the MPS went on to give an overview of what would replace these systems.
The backup is to go to the old i-24/7 Interpol system, but DAC Martin added this ‘doesn’t do the same thing and isn’t linked to the European Arrest Warrant’.
He said SIS II which circulates real time data across EU members states was particularly important and that many people are not away that when information is inputted into the PNC is automatically goes on the SIS11 systems too. The UK has added 1.2million alerts to the system which has been checked by Law Enforcement 536 million times.
The backup is to go to the old i-24/7 Interpol system, but DAC Martin added this ‘doesn’t do the same thing and isn’t linked to the European Arrest Warrant’.
“We’re trying to map what that looks like.”
European Arrest Warrants were also an area of concern. The police fall back plan is the 1957 Convention on Extradition, but officers will not be able arrest on sight. Instead they’ll have to apply to the Magistrate’s Court first.
Missing persons was also raised as an area where hard decisions would have to be made. Around 200,000 people go missing every year. Currently, all missing persons automatically go onto the SIS II system.
DAC Martin said: “Are we going to have to choose who to put on it? Are we going to have to put them on manually, on the Interpol i-24/7 system, and hope our EU partners still use that system?
“We have done high level mapping on this. Manual input has an massive impact on policing.”
The NPCC has also set up a centralised team to support any necessary changes. This includes an approach similar to a ‘threat desk’ set up where forces can phone for help. There will be regional Single Points of Contact (SPOCs).
“If it’s not automated, and we don’t have SIS II, they’re going to have to check two or three different systems,” said DAC Martin.
He said his team would be up and running by the end of the year and it was ‘already out there’ in the bigger cities, but rural areas could not be ignored. Across the country, 17 per cent of offenders are foreign nationals. The work is expected to ‘dovetail’ into the work of the National Crime Agency.
DAC Martin told the conference that he had also been able to ‘achieve funding’ for the work although that funding ends 29 March, an irony not lost on those present. A further bid is in for the following financial year.
DAC Martin added: “A deal is to have a transition period. During that period is when we find if we do keep some of these tools. It is a movable feast.”
Hertfordshire Chief Constable Charlie Hall QPM who is NPCC National Lead for International Criminality outlined the four areas of contingency planning work that are currently underway in the event of a no deal Brexit.
These include:
- Travel, Freight, Borders
- Disruption of service
- Information and data sharing
- Demonstration and public order
He said: “We reasonably expect further demos whatever we end up with as we approach 29 March which will need a policing response although we have no intelligence at the moment suggesting there will be wider public order problems.”
“The issue of borders could increase tensions and we could see some flashpoints around that. More widely there could be increased tensions almost anywhere across the country.
“We are working with the Government to understand the threats and to mitigate against some of them and their possible impacts.”
“It could be a ‘millennial bug’ we’re planning for, but it would be remiss of us if we don’t put this in place. We need to reassure the public.”
CC Charlie Hall, NPCC Lead for Operations
He added that the police service would not expect to be ‘plugged into address those impacts’ such as marshalling queues at the borders.
Public reassurance
Chief Constable Hall said the service could use existing process to manage the impact of a no deal Brexit and that there were already good arrangements in place to understand threats and risks.
He added that forces needed to think about their business continuity plans to understand the impact on suppliers and services in the event of a no-deal Brexit. A mobilisation exercise is also planned in the coming months to test out some scenarios, such as public order, and how the service will move resources around the country, ‘if needed’.
The senior officer said Police and Crime Commissioners had a role to play in reassuring the public that potential issues surrounding Brexit are ‘being thought through’.
In drawing a comparison with the millennial bug where fears of its impact failed to materialise, CC Hall concluded: “It could be a ‘millennial bug’ we’re planning for, but it would be remiss of us if we don’t put this in place. We need to reassure the public.”
Lord Bach also ended his comments on a slightly more upbeat note. “There is one positive. The EU will want a deal with us because they respect and owe so much to British Policing.”
