Analysis

ANALYSIS: Almost two years after Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to recruit an 'Uplift' of 20,000 additional police officers, latest workforce figures show that the officer headcount has increased significantly; but in this first in a series of articles looking at the changing police workforce, Policing Insight's Ian Wiggett explains why a return to 2010 staffing levels will need to be more than just a numbers game, and how Government attempts to 'level up' could still leave a landscape of inequality.

ANALYSIS: COVID-19 has seen fraudsters taking advantage of the pandemic economy, and Africa has not escaped the attentions of those intent on fraud; Research Associate Nataliya Mykhalchenko and Lecturer Jörg Wiegratz, both of the University of Leeds, set out some of the key findings from their latest research into the responses to fraud, and the major characteristics of anti-fraud measures, across 11 African countries.

ANALYSIS: The recent upsurge in gang membership and conflict in New Zealand has prompted a fresh focus on their criminal activity; but ahead of this week’s Australia and New Zealand Society of Evidence-Based Policing Conference, Dr Jarrod Gilbert of the University of Canterbury warns that equating patched gangs with organised crime ignores the evidence, and will result in law enforcement and socio-economic approaches to gang issues that are unlikely to be effective.

ANALYSIS: Crime prevention programmes in many countries often adopt a blanket approach to communities, with little regard to race or culture; ahead of next week’s Australia and New Zealand Society of Evidence-Based Policing Conference, researchers Dr Kabir Dasgupta, Dr André Diegmann, Professor Tom Kirchmaier and Dr Alexander Plum discuss their latest study which highlights the role of ethnicity in the criminal behaviour of young fathers, and suggests that a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy response to crime reduction is likely to fail.

FEATURE: The volume and accessibility of online child sexual abuse material (CSAM) has increased considerably in recent years, prompting concerns from police, legislators and the public; ahead of next week’s Australia and New Zealand Society of Evidence-Based Policing Conference, Dr Rick Brown, Deputy Director of the Australian Institute of Criminology, outlines some of the key research and initiatives already underway to reduce CSAM in the future.

ANALYSIS: A network of programmes seek to provide pathways out of criminal behaviour for at-risk youth in New York City; Greg Berman, former Director of New York’s Center for Court Innovation, looks at both the challenges and the potential of the Cure Violence approach, and underlines the importance of empirical research in establishing if, why and how the various programmes achieve their aims.

FEATURE: From fake big-name brands to illegal livestock sources and sub-standard products that are a danger to public health, the illicit food and alcohol industry is big business that attracts organised crime; Policing Insight’s Chris Allen looks at the latest efforts from Europol and Interpol to tackle the problem, as well as the UK’s response.

Insight: An offender desistance programme centred on taking a public health approach to policing suggests that it can reduce the risk of offending by 30% over a significant follow-up period which could have far-reaching benefits for how policing resources are used. Working with offenders rather than simply processing them was a key driver for the project, as Detective Superintendent Kevin Weir and Durham PCC's Policy and Commissioning Officer Stephanie Kilili report.

FEATURE: The forest wildfires which have swept large parts of Turkey, killing at least eight people and decimating wildlife, made the news headlines around the world: but there are fears that a return to pyro-terrorism rather than climate change could be the main factor behind these latest blazes, as PhD student Eray Arda Akartuna of UCL’s Dawes Centre for Future Crime reports.

ANALYSIS: The transition of forensic science provision in England and Wales from the public to private sector has led to fears over the ability of commercial markets to influence forensic analysis and interpretation; in the second of two articles, Dr Karen Richmond of the University of Copenhagen highlights further concerns around the separation of tasks and the use of Streamlined Forensic Reports, as well as a potential path to progress for the forensic sector through the growth of digital.

ANALYSIS: Hard-drinking police officers are a staple of TV and fiction - but what is the reality of alcohol use in the police and its relationship with poor mental health? Patsy Irizar of the University of Liverpool explains the findings of the first study to identify the level of heavy drinking and co-occurring mental health problems in the UK Police Service.

ANALYSIS: Levels of violent crime across America saw an unprecedented increase in 2020, and remain worryingly high in 2021; in this last in a series of essays from the Violence Reduction Project, former Newark Police officer Prof Jon Shane of John Jay College of Criminal Justice outlines the thinking behind situational crime prevention, and how addressing the physical and social environment can help to reduce crime, aggression, and disorder.

ANALYSIS: Lockdowns and ‘stay-at-home’ messages introduced as COVID-19 pandemic measures prompted speculation about the impact on crime, and whether anticipated falls in street crime and violence would be matched by rises in commercial burglaries and domestic violence; Professor Manuel Eisner of the University of Cambridge, and Utrecht University Assistant Professor Amy Nivette, studied the lockdown crime rates across six main offences in 27 cities, and believe the findings could help in the design of future crime reduction strategies.

FEATURE: As the UK continues to emerge from lockdown, a new report from the Police Federation of England and Wales reveals that 69% of police officers have experienced work-related mental health difficulties during the pandemic; Policing Insight Editor Keith Potter looks at the report – the latest in a recent series of studies to highlight the pandemic’s devastating impact on emergency services wellbeing.

ANALYSIS: The transition of forensic science provision in England and Wales from the public to private sector has led to fears over the ability of commercial markets to influence – and even distort – forensic analysis and interpretation, according to a new study; in the first of two articles, Dr Karen Richmond of the University of Copenhagen explains the background to the research, and highlights some of the key concerns of scientists including the loss of contextual information, case fragmentation, and the diminishing role of forensic practitioners.

FEATURE: Diversion schemes and out-of-court disposals for young adult offenders are recognised by police and PCCs as an essential rehabilitative alternative to prosecution, and will be vital in clearing post-Covid court backlogs, according to a new review by the Revolving Doors Agency – despite the limited research evidence to date around what works best in terms of current practice, as Policing Insight Deputy Editor Sarah Gibbons reports.

ANALYSIS: As technology evolves, policing faces new challenges protecting the rule of law and victims online, while serving the online community; in Europol’s latest Spotlight position paper, Dr Mary Aiken, Professor of Forensic Cyberpsychology at the University of East London, and Dr Philipp Amann, Head of Expertise & Stakeholder Management at Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre, explore these key challenges, and consider the question of where to draw the cyber blue line.

ANALYSIS: While many businesses and communities struggled to overcome the challenges presented by the pandemic, COVID-19 also offered opportunities for fraudsters and cybercriminals to target both vulnerable individuals and financial support packages offered by governments around the world; Policing Insight’s Andy Staniforth looks at some of the steps being taken – and the early successes – in the fight against COVID-19 fraud.

FEATURE: Just days after a ‘politically exposed’ member of an elite Azerbaijan family paid a £4m settlement to the National Crime Agency following claims she had brought corrupt, stolen and embezzled funds into the UK via the ‘Azerbaijani Laundromat’, a new report from Spotlight on Corruption has highlighted major loopholes in the UK’s golden visa scheme enabling dirty money to flood into the UK; Policing Insight Deputy Editor Sarah Gibbons reports.

FEATURE: The latest Home Office figures for the police use of terrorism-related powers show that arrests are at their lowest level since 2011, due largely to the overall reduction in crime during the pandemic; but counter-terror police have repeated concerns over the “perfect storm” for online radicalisation of children and vulnerable people that has seen terror-related arrests of under-18s rise, as Policing Insight’s Sean Howe reports.

ANALYSIS: As part of its wider work on the impact of COVID-19 on the criminal justice system, criminal justice research and consultancy organisation Crest Advisory are currently exploring whether out-of-court disposals can reduce the numbers attending court and cut reoffending rates; but as Crest’s Head of Strategy and Insight, Danny Shaw, and Analyst Delene Adams explain the first phase of the project took an unexpected turn.

FEATURE: Last month the FBI and Australian Federal Police, working with the US Drug Enforcement Administration, Europol and police forces in 15 other countries, carried out a series of raids causing major disruption to criminal networks worldwide, thanks to information secured through a police-developed phone encryption app that had become a favourite with criminals; Policing Insight’s Andy Staniforth looks at the incredible success of Operation Trojan Shield.

ANALYSIS: Europol’s latest EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) found that while terrorist activity in Europe remained stable in 2020, more jihadist attacks were completed than stopped, as policing across the continent struggled to cope with the pandemic; Policing Insight’s Sean Howe looks at some of the key issues highlighted by the report, including the increase in radicalisation during COVID-19, and the growth of online extremist propaganda.

ANALYSIS: The latest UN World Drug Report has highlighted how organised crime groups adapted to the impact of COVID-19 on drug trafficking, and the continuing growth of the dark web marketplace for narcotics; in this second of two articles focusing on the report, Policing Insight’s Chris Allen looks at the changes in the production, transportation and sale of the world’s most popular illegal drugs, with a focus on cocaine and methamphetamine.