Methamphetamine has become dramatically cheaper over the past seven years, even as authorities report record seizures, according to the latest New Zealand Drug Trends Survey.
The sustained price falls point to deeper changes in how the methamphetamine market is operating. Australia has recently observed a similar pattern.
The annual online survey of over 8,800 people who use drugs shows wholesale prices of the illegal and harmful substance (per gram sold to dealers) have fallen by 41%, while street-level ‘point’ prices (0.1 gram retail deals) have dropped by 27%.
Once adjusted for inflation, the declines are closer to 50%. A gram of meth that cost an average of $563 in 2017 now sells for about $253 in inflation-adjusted terms in 2025.
This trend is striking because retail prices of illegal drugs often remain unchanged for years. For example, a cannabis ‘tinny’ (about 1-1.5 grams) has typically cost $20-25 in New Zealand for more than two decades, reflecting the need for quick and simple transactions.
The sustained price falls therefore point to deeper changes in how the methamphetamine market is operating. Australia has recently observed a similar pattern.
Importantly, the shift can’t be attributed to any changes in drug purity. Recent testing suggests average purity levels often exceed 70%, approaching the theoretical maximum of about 80% for the hydrochloride salt form. In other words, methamphetamine is not only cheaper, but often highly potent.
Already, the drug is estimated to cause hundreds of millions of dollars in harm to New Zealand communities, through impacts to hospital emergency departments, mental health and drug treatment systems, and social services – and to users themselves in terms of lives derailed and family relationships fractured.
All of this raises critical questions: what is driving these price drops, how long will they continue, and what might they ultimately mean for meth’s social toll?
Competition, enforcement or demand?
We can point to several factors that might be contributing to the falling prices. Illegal drug markets are often assumed to be controlled by organised crime groups who are able to keep prices high. But the widespread price declines across New Zealand – including in regions with the strongest gang presence – suggest the market remains competitive.
Could the price drops reflect sellers feeling they face less risk of arrest? Given New Zealand Police and Customs have been reporting record seizures every year since 2019, that doesn’t seem plausible.
Could the price drops reflect sellers feeling they face less risk of arrest? Given New Zealand Police and Customs have been reporting record seizures every year since 2019, that doesn’t seem plausible.
In 2019, the law was changed to direct police not to arrest people found with small amounts of drugs unless it was in the public interest. While this may have reduced enforcement risk for users, it was not intended to change the situation for dealers selling grams. If anything, the policy partly aimed to free up resources to focus on suppliers.
We might also assume that meth has simply become cheaper to make. With multiple ways to synthesise methamphetamine using different precursor chemicals, manufacturers may have found lower-cost methods over time.
But production costs can make up only a fraction of the final street price, with large mark-ups added along the distribution chain. That means even big savings in production may have little effect on retail prices.
Might the trend signal fewer buyers? Methamphetamine might well be reaching the end of its ‘product cycle’ as cocaine gains popularity. Yet wastewater data show meth consumption doubled in late 2024 – hardly an indication of falling demand.
Are cartels the culprit?
The most convincing explanation lies away from New Zealand’s shores, in new global sources of methamphetamine supply.
New Zealand and Australia have traditionally sourced methamphetamine from lawless regions of Asia known as the Golden Triangle. More recently, however, growing seizures have been linked to Mexican drug cartels, often transiting through Canada.
New Zealand and Australia have traditionally sourced methamphetamine from lawless regions of Asia known as the Golden Triangle. More recently, however, growing seizures have been linked to Mexican drug cartels, often transiting through Canada.
Australian authorities say these cartels can supply methamphetamine at less than one-third the price of Asian producers and that about 70% of seized meth now originates from North America.
It may also explain the rising supply of cocaine in New Zealand, with Mexican cartels deeply involved in global cocaine trafficking. Methamphetamine trafficked from Mexico is also often routed through Pacific Island countries such as Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, which have strong trade, transport and cultural links with New Zealand.
On top of this, digital drug markets – including darknets and social media sales – may be lowering the cost of finding alternative sellers and better deals, increasing competition and pushing prices down.
This may also explain why methamphetamine is not the only drug to experience price declines in recent years. We have also tracked substantial falls in the price of MDMA (ecstasy), a drug increasingly purchased via social media. Digital drug markets may also reduce the need for multiple layers of local distribution, lowering costs.
While we believe Mexican cartel supply is the most likely driver of methamphetamine price declines, the other explanations cannot be ruled out.
More research is needed to better understand the supply-and-demand implications and effects of changes in enforcement intensity, risk of violence and victimisation, production costs, price formation and modern digital drug markets.
Untangling these forces will be the focus of our future work, helping policymakers to respond more effectively to what remains one of New Zealand’s most damaging illegal drugs.
This article first appeared on The Conversation, and is republished under a Creative Commons Licence; you can read the original here.
About the Authors
Professor Chris Wilkins leads the drug research team at SHORE & Whāriki Research Centre, Massey University, and has researched drug use and illegal drug markets for the past 20 years. He has published over 100 papers on a range of topics related to drug use and drug policy, including on methamphetamine, cannabis, ecstasy, gangs, cannabis policy reform, and drug markets. He currently leads the annual online New Zealand Drugs Trends Survey. Chris has been an invited speaker at international meetings convened by the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction and at the US National Institute for Drug Abuse.
Dr Marta Rychert is an Associate Professor at Massey University with expertise in drug policy, health law and public health, with particular focus on drug policy reform and cannabis commercialisation. Her research analysed implementation of drug policy reforms in Europe, New Zealand, Canada and the Caribbean, and she currently leads a research programme on the implementation of medicinal cannabis scheme in NZ. She is a co-Editor-in-Chief of international journal Drugs, Habits and Social Policy, and prior to her academic appointments in New Zealand she worked in the European Union Drugs Agency in Portugal.
Dr Robin van der Sanden is a Post Doctoral Fellow at Massey University’s SHORE research group, where she completed her Doctorate in 2023. Her PhD thesis explores the rise of social media and messaging app-facilitated drug markets in New Zealand and their impact on established drug trading practices. Robin’s work centres around the intersection between digital technologies, drug trading and drug use. She currently works as part of SHORE & Whāriki’s Drug Research Team, and is involved in a variety of projects on vaping, and cannabis policy, as well as the Team’s annual New Zealand Drug Trends Survey.
Picture © Anastasika Yar / Shutterstock
